This week, we at Bourse begin an analysis of several economic trends and consider what investors and the wider public might expect in the upcoming national budget carded for October 7. In the first of a series of articles, we consider the revenue side of the budget equation. Will economic growth remain muted, or will it accelerate? Will energy revenues be higher or lower than projected and how might this impact fiscal decisions for FY 2019/2020? We discuss below.
GDP growth on the rebound According to the Ministry of Finance, real GDP Growth recovered in 2018, measuring 1.9% year-on-year (YoY) in contrast to the contractions of 6.5% and 1.9% recorded in 2016 and 2017, respectively. Based on the most recent estimates of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth is expected to be relatively muted in 2019, but consistently improve by 2021 (WB: h1.7%, IMF: h2.1%).