In virtually every statement issued by the Ministry of Health (MoH), the public is assured that this is a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”.
My question is, how do they know?
If the MoH has been doing contact tracing that proves unjabbed people are the ones infecting others, they haven’t said so.
Instead, it seems that, because the majority of Covid fatalities are among the unvaccinated (or “not fully vaccinated” —the MoH presser team seems unsure which), the inference is that the unjabbed are also the spreaders.
Obviously, this does not necessarily follow, since the Covid shots are now known to reduce deaths but not prevent infections or transmission.
In fact, a cursory look at the figures suggests that many persons officially designated as vaccinated may have no greater immunity than those who have not taken the shot.
This is because Trinidad and Tobago has recorded over 65,000 cases of infections up to November.
However, studies from other countries show that estimates of actual infections tend to be four to ten times higher than official figures.
Taking the more conservative ratio, this would mean that over 300,000 people in T&T have contracted Covid and recovered and, therefore, now have robust immunity.
This compares to over 600,000 persons who have gotten the Covid shots. Except, as we now know, a significant portion of that jabbed cohort no longer have any immunity due to waning efficacy.
Vaccinations began in June and, according to the MoH, by mid-July 146,721 persons had been jabbed.
Since vaccine efficacy vanishes by six months, with an average 10 per cent decrease per month (faster in the elderly), at least 100,000 persons who got their shots in June-July are now effectively “unvaccinated”.
By mid-August, people who had been designated “fully vaccinated” totalled 308,205 so, three months later, at least another 150,000 are now equivalent to “not fully vaccinated”.
This means about 100,000 to 200,000 jabbed adults have exactly the same immunity status as 150,000 to 250,000 unjabbed persons who didn’t get Covid (I am assuming half of the recovered persons also got vaccinated and would be counted in that cohort).
Moreover, persons who have gotten the Covid shot are more likely to infect others than people with natural immunity (in fact, the Centers for Disease Control in the US have not one record of a recovered person infecting anyone else).
If my calculations are correct, this suggests there is no statistical basis to assume that the unvaccinated are driving infections to any greater degree than the jabbed.